Climate change encompasses global warming and its far-reaching effects on Earth's climate system. The current warming trend is primarily driven by human activities, notably the burning of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution. Deforestation and certain agricultural and industrial practices also contribute by releasing greenhouse gases. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to a rise in global temperatures. The concentration of carbon dioxide, the main driver of global warming, has increased by approximately 50% since pre-industrial times, reaching levels unprecedented in millions of years.
The period between 1850-1900 serves as the pre-industrial baseline, against which recent warming is compared.
In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence indicating that the climate was warming and that CO2 levels were rising. However, his calculations faced similar objections to those raised against Arrhenius's earlier work.
From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed, known as global dimming.
After 1970, a significant rise in temperature occurred due to the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and the implementation of controls on sulfur pollution.
Since 1970, the thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses.
As early as 1975, the term "global warming" was used to describe changes to the climate.
In 1979, the National Research Council's Charney Report was released, supporting the accuracy of climate models that forecast significant warming.
Since 1980, Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased.
The 1987 Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to phase out production of ozone-depleting gases, has had benefits for climate change mitigation.
In 1988, James Hansen testified before a US Senate committee, publicly presenting the human causation of observed global warming and the dangers of unmitigated warming. Also, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred interdisciplinary research.
In 1988, NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term "global warming" in his testimony in the U.S. Senate, which helped to popularize the term.
From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed, known as global dimming. Also since 1990, aerosols have been declining due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.
Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.
Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions.
From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the "global warming hiatus".
After 2000 years, the result is an estimated total sea level rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F).
Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock.
In 2004, the climate fiction movie "The Day After Tomorrow" focused on climate change, bringing it to popular culture.
Al Gore's documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" focused on climate change, bringing it to popular culture in 2006.
The 2009 Copenhagen Accord has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.
A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two-thirds from 2010 levels.
As of 2021, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels.
From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the "global warming hiatus".
Between 2014 and 2023, sea level rise has increased, reaching 4.8 cm per decade.
The decade from 2014 to 2023 warmed to an average of 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline between 1850 and 1900.
In 2015, all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under 1.5 °C.
In 2016, The World Bank estimated that climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 without adaptation.
In 2016, air pollution deaths were estimated at 7 million annually.
The 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol committed to reducing the emissions of hydrofluorocarbons.
In 2017, direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.
The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".
Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock.
In 2018, young people across the globe began protesting by skipping school on Fridays as part of the School Strike for Climate, inspired by Greta Thunberg.
As of 2019, agreement in recent scientific literature reached over 99% regarding the fact that the climate is warming and this warming is caused by human activities. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.
As of 2019, carbon pricing covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
In 2019, global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO2.
In 2019, the United Kingdom parliament became the first national government to declare a climate emergency.
By 2020, only 83.3 billion USD was delivered to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation, falling short of the Copenhagen Accord's goal of sending $100 billion per year.
Since 2020, the effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050.
As of 2021, based on information from 48 national climate plans, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.
In 2021, a majority of citizens in 30 countries expressed a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency.
In 2021, the European Commission released its "Fit for 55" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the car industry.
In 2021, the IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.
In 2021, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projected that by 2100, global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases, 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario, or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario.
In 2022, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750.
According to UNEP, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO2.
Between 2014 and 2023, sea level rise has increased, reaching 4.8 cm per decade.
In 2023, Oxfam found that the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%.
In 2023, renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation installed.
Only in 2023 the target of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020 set by the Copenhagen Accord is expected to be achieved.
The decade from 2014 to 2023 warmed to an average of 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline between 1850 and 1900.
A 2024 survey across 125 countries found that 89% of the global population demanded intensified political action on climate change, but systematically underestimated other peoples' willingness to act.
As of 2024, pledges made under the Paris Agreement give a 66% chance of keeping global warming under 2.8 °C by the end of the century. However, current policies may lead to a 3.1 °C increase.
In 2024, temperature increased well above the recent average at more than +1.5 °C.
In 2024, the Earth experienced its warmest year on record, with temperatures reaching +1.60 °C (2.88 °F) above pre-industrial levels since tracking began in 1850. This unprecedented warming exacerbates existing climate change impacts and heightens the risk of triggering irreversible tipping points.
The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is almost a 50% chance of the five-year average global temperature exceeding +1.5 °C between 2024 and 2028.
As of March 2025, 194 states and the European Union have acceded to or ratified the Paris Agreement.
Under the approach of production of emissions, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025-2050.
The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is almost a 50% chance of the five-year average global temperature exceeding +1.5 °C between 2024 and 2028.
By 2030, to limit warming to 1.5 °C, global emissions would need to be halved.
Prior to 2030, fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms and then decline, with the sharpest reductions in coal use.
The World Bank estimates that by 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation measures.
From 2035, all new cars on the European market must be zero-emission vehicles, according to the European Commission's "Fit for 55" legislation package released in 2021.
According to the World Economic Forum, 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.
According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.
Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is necessary to limit warming to 1.5 °C.
By 2050, South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral.
Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.
Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million lives per year by 2050.
The European Commission presented its European Green Deal with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.
To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated, and coal use nearly phased out.
To limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be net-zero by 2050, necessitating systemic changes in various sectors.
Under the approach of production of emissions, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025-2050.
To limit global warming to 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be net-zero by 2070, requiring systemic changes in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings and industry.
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