History of Climate change in Timeline
Climate change encompasses global warming and its far-reaching effects on Earth's climate system. The current warming trend is primarily driven by human activities, notably the burning of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution. Deforestation and certain agricultural and industrial practices also contribute by releasing greenhouse gases. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to a rise in global temperatures. The concentration of carbon dioxide, the main driver of global warming, has increased by approximately 50% since pre-industrial times, reaching levels unprecedented in millions of years.
1900: Pre-industrial baseline
The period between 1850-1900 serves as the pre-industrial baseline, against which recent warming is compared.
1938: Callendar publishes evidence of warming and rising CO2 levels
In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence indicating that the climate was warming and that CO2 levels were rising. However, his calculations faced similar objections to those raised against Arrhenius's earlier work.
1961: Beginning of global dimming
From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed, known as global dimming.
1970: Marked temperature increase
After 1970, a significant rise in temperature occurred due to the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and the implementation of controls on sulfur pollution.
1970: Growth of thermal energy
Since 1970, the thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses.
1975: Early Use of "Global Warming"
As early as 1975, the term "global warming" was used to describe changes to the climate.
1979: Charney Report supports climate model accuracy
In 1979, the National Research Council's Charney Report was released, supporting the accuracy of climate models that forecast significant warming.
1980: Increase in Monsoonal Precipitation
Since 1980, Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased.
1987: Montreal Protocol
The 1987 Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to phase out production of ozone-depleting gases, has had benefits for climate change mitigation.
1988: Hansen's testimony on human causation of global warming
In 1988, James Hansen testified before a US Senate committee, publicly presenting the human causation of observed global warming and the dangers of unmitigated warming. Also, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred interdisciplinary research.
1988: James Hansen's testimony
In 1988, NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term "global warming" in his testimony in the U.S. Senate, which helped to popularize the term.
1990: End of global dimming
From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed, known as global dimming. Also since 1990, aerosols have been declining due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.
1990: Underestimated Sea level rise
Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.
1994: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
1997: Kyoto Protocol extended the UNFCCC
In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions.
1998: Global warming hiatus
From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the "global warming hiatus".
2000: Sea level rise estimation
After 2000 years, the result is an estimated total sea level rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F).
2001: Deforestation Analysis
Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock.
2004: Release of climate fiction movie 'The Day After Tomorrow'
In 2004, the climate fiction movie "The Day After Tomorrow" focused on climate change, bringing it to popular culture.
2006: Release of 'An Inconvenient Truth' documentary
Al Gore's documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" focused on climate change, bringing it to popular culture in 2006.
2009: Copenhagen Accord
The 2009 Copenhagen Accord has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.
2010: Agriculture and forestry emissions baseline
A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two-thirds from 2010 levels.
2010: Greenhouse gas emissions baseline for comparison
As of 2021, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels.
2013: Global warming hiatus
From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the "global warming hiatus".
2014: Sea level rise increase
Between 2014 and 2023, sea level rise has increased, reaching 4.8 cm per decade.
2014: Decade of warming
The decade from 2014 to 2023 warmed to an average of 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline between 1850 and 1900.
2015: Paris Agreement negotiated
In 2015, all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under 1.5 °C.
2016: Climate change drives people into extreme poverty
In 2016, The World Bank estimated that climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 without adaptation.
2016: Air pollution deaths estimated at 7 million annually
In 2016, air pollution deaths were estimated at 7 million annually.
2016: Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol
The 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol committed to reducing the emissions of hydrofluorocarbons.
2017: Global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion
In 2017, direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.
2017: National Climate Assessment
The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".
2018: Deforestation Analysis
Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock.
2018: School Strike for Climate begins
In 2018, young people across the globe began protesting by skipping school on Fridays as part of the School Strike for Climate, inspired by Greta Thunberg.
2019: Near-complete scientific consensus on human-caused climate change
As of 2019, agreement in recent scientific literature reached over 99% regarding the fact that the climate is warming and this warming is caused by human activities. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.
2019: Carbon pricing covers 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions
As of 2019, carbon pricing covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
2019: Global greenhouse gas emissions
In 2019, global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO2.
2019: UK parliament declares climate emergency
In 2019, the United Kingdom parliament became the first national government to declare a climate emergency.
2020: Copenhagen Accord's financial goal not met
By 2020, only 83.3 billion USD was delivered to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation, falling short of the Copenhagen Accord's goal of sending $100 billion per year.
2020: Sulfur content decrease
Since 2020, the effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050.
2021: Greenhouse gas emissions reduction below target
As of 2021, based on information from 48 national climate plans, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.
2021: Majority of citizens worried about climate change
In 2021, a majority of citizens in 30 countries expressed a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency.
2021: European Commission releases "Fit for 55" legislation package
In 2021, the European Commission released its "Fit for 55" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the car industry.
2021: IPCC report states human cause of climate change is "unequivocal"
In 2021, the IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.
2021: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
In 2021, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projected that by 2100, global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases, 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario, or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario.
2022: Increase in CO2 and methane
In 2022, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750.
2023: Carbon budget estimation
According to UNEP, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO2.
2023: Sea level rise increase
Between 2014 and 2023, sea level rise has increased, reaching 4.8 cm per decade.
2023: Wealthiest 10% responsible for 50% of global emissions
In 2023, Oxfam found that the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%.
2023: Renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation
In 2023, renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation installed.
2023: Target of Copenhagen Accord expected to be achieved
Only in 2023 the target of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020 set by the Copenhagen Accord is expected to be achieved.
2023: Decade of warming
The decade from 2014 to 2023 warmed to an average of 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline between 1850 and 1900.
2024: Survey finds demand for intensified political action on climate
A 2024 survey across 125 countries found that 89% of the global population demanded intensified political action on climate change, but systematically underestimated other peoples' willingness to act.
2024: Paris Agreement pledges may keep warming under 2.8 °C
As of 2024, pledges made under the Paris Agreement give a 66% chance of keeping global warming under 2.8 °C by the end of the century. However, current policies may lead to a 3.1 °C increase.
2024: Temperature increase
In 2024, temperature increased well above the recent average at more than +1.5 °C.
2024: Warmest year on record
In 2024, the Earth experienced its warmest year on record, with temperatures reaching +1.60 °C (2.88 °F) above pre-industrial levels since tracking began in 1850. This unprecedented warming exacerbates existing climate change impacts and heightens the risk of triggering irreversible tipping points.
2024: Probability of exceeding +1.5 °C
The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is almost a 50% chance of the five-year average global temperature exceeding +1.5 °C between 2024 and 2028.
March 2025: Paris Agreement acceded to by 194 states and the EU
As of March 2025, 194 states and the European Union have acceded to or ratified the Paris Agreement.
2025: Top fossil fuel companies owe climate reparations
Under the approach of production of emissions, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025-2050.
2028: Probability of exceeding +1.5 °C
The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is almost a 50% chance of the five-year average global temperature exceeding +1.5 °C between 2024 and 2028.
2030: Emissions reduction target
By 2030, to limit warming to 1.5 °C, global emissions would need to be halved.
2030: Fossil fuel use expected to peak
Prior to 2030, fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms and then decline, with the sharpest reductions in coal use.
2030: Climate change expected to drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty
The World Bank estimates that by 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation measures.
2035: All new cars in the EU must be zero-emission
From 2035, all new cars on the European market must be zero-emission vehicles, according to the European Commission's "Fit for 55" legislation package released in 2021.
2050: Projected deaths due to climate change
According to the World Economic Forum, 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.
2050: Malnutrition deaths and livestock decline
According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.
2050: Net-zero emissions target
Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is necessary to limit warming to 1.5 °C.
2050: South Korea and Japan commit to carbon neutrality
By 2050, South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral.
2050: Impact of limiting black carbon deposits
Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.
2050: Paris Agreement goals could save a million lives per year
Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million lives per year by 2050.
2050: EU carbon-neutral goal
The European Commission presented its European Green Deal with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.
2050: Renewable energy to dominate electricity generation for carbon neutrality
To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated, and coal use nearly phased out.
2050: Net-zero emissions required to limit global warming to 1.5 °C
To limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be net-zero by 2050, necessitating systemic changes in various sectors.
2050: Climate reparations owed by fossil fuel companies until 2050
Under the approach of production of emissions, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025-2050.
2060: China commits to carbon neutrality
China has committed to become carbon-neutral by 2060.
2070: Net-zero emissions target for 2 °C warming limit
To limit global warming to 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be net-zero by 2070, requiring systemic changes in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings and industry.
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