1869
During El Niño years: As warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific, it takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific. Singapore experienced the driest February in 2010 since records began in 1869, with only 6.3 mm of rain falling in the month. The years 1968 and 2005 had the next driest Februaries, when 8.4 mm of rain fell.
1876
El Niño may have led to the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures. A recent study suggests a strong El Niño effect between 1789 and 1793 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution. The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century. The 1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people.
1888
Charles Todd, in 1888, suggested droughts in India and Australia tended to occur at the same time; Norman Lockyer noted the same in 1904. An El Niño connection with flooding was reported in 1894 by Victor Eguiguren (1852–1919) and in 1895 by Federico Alfonso Pezet (1859–1929). In 1924, Gilbert Walker (for whom the Walker circulation is named) coined the term "Southern Oscillation". He and others (including Norwegian-American meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes) are generally credited with identifying the El Niño effect.
1892
An early recorded mention of the term "El Niño" ("The Boy" in Spanish) to refer to climate occurred in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the geographical society congress in Lima that Peruvian sailors named the warm south-flowing current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. Although pre-Columbian societies were certainly aware of the phenomenon, the indigenous names for it have been lost to history.
1957
The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986. Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–87, 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009–10. Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80. Some sources say that the El Niños of 2006-07 and 2014-16 were also Central Pacific El Niños. Recent years when La Niña Modoki events occurred include 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017.
1969
A key mechanism of ENSO is the Bjerknes feedback (named after Jacob Bjerknes in 1969) in which the atmospheric changes alter the sea temperatures that in turn alter the atmospheric winds in a positive feedback. Weaker easterly trade winds result in a surge of warm surface waters to the east and reduced ocean upwelling on the equator. In turn, this leads to warmer sea surface temperatures (called El Niño), a weaker Walker circulation (an east-west overturning circulation in the atmosphere) and even weaker trade winds. Ultimately the warm waters in the western tropical Pacific are depleted enough so that conditions return to normal. The exact mechanisms that cause the oscillation are unclear and are being studied.
1969
The close relationship between ocean temperatures and the strength of the trade winds was first identified by Jacob Bjerknes in 1969. Bjerknes also hypothesized that ENSO was a positive feedback system where the associated changes in one component of the climate system (the ocean or atmosphere) tend to reinforce changes in the other. For example, during El Niño, the reduced contrast in ocean temperatures across the Pacific results in weaker trade winds, further reinforcing the El Niño state. This process is known as Bjerknes feedback. Although these associated changes in the ocean and atmosphere often occur together, the state of the atmosphere may resemble a different ENSO phase than the state of the ocean or vice versa. Because their states are closely linked, the variations of ENSO may arise from changes in both the ocean and atmosphere and not necessarily from an initial change of exclusively one or the other. Conceptual models explaining how ENSO operates generally accept the Bjerknes feedback hypothesis. However, ENSO would perpetually remain in one phase if Bjerknes feedback were the only process occurring. Several theories have been proposed to explain how ENSO can change from one state to the next, despite the positive feedback. These explanations broadly fall under two categories. In one view, the Bjerknes feedback naturally triggers negative feedbacks that end and reverse the abnormal state of the tropical Pacific. This perspective implies that the processes that lead to El Niño and La Niña also eventually bring about their end, making ENSO a self-sustaining process. Other theories view the state of ENSO as being changed by irregular and external phenomena such as the Madden–Julian oscillation, tropical instability waves, and westerly wind bursts.
1972
Most critically, global mass bleaching events were recorded in 1997-98 and 2015–16, when around 75-99% losses of live coral were registered across the world. Considerable attention was also given to the collapse of Peruvian and Chilean anchovy populations that led to a severe fishery crisis following the ENSO events in 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98 and, more recently, in 2015–16. In particular, increased surface seawater temperatures in 1982-83 also lead to the probable extinction of two hydrocoral species in Panamá, and to a massive mortality of kelp beds along 600 km of coastline in Chile, from which kelps and associated biodiversity slowly recovered in the most affected areas even after 20 years. All these findings enlarge the role of ENSO events as a strong climatic force driving ecological changes all around the world – particularly in tropical forests and coral reefs.
1991
The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Niño events. Peruvian fisheries collapsed during the 1970s due to overfishing following the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction. The fisheries were previously the world's largest, however, this collapse led to the decline of these fisheries. During the 1982–83 event, jack mackerel and anchoveta populations were reduced, scallops increased in warmer water, but hake followed cooler water down the continental slope, while shrimp and sardines moved southward, so some catches decreased while others increased. Horse mackerel have increased in the region during warm events. Shifting locations and types of fish due to changing conditions create challenges for the fishing industry. Peruvian sardines have moved during El Niño events to Chilean areas. Other conditions provide further complications, such as the government of Chile in 1991 creating restrictions on the fishing areas for self-employed fishermen and industrial fleets.
1997
Following the El Nino event in 1997 – 1998, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory attributes the first large-scale coral bleaching event to the warming waters.
1998
The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1990–95 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession. An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events. Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching".
2002
It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events between 1900 and 2024, with the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, 2018–19, and 2023–24.
2021
In climate change science, ENSO is known as one of the internal climate variability phenomena. Future trends in ENSO due to climate change are uncertain, although climate change exacerbates the effects of droughts and floods. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report summarized the scientific knowledge in 2021 for the future of ENSO as follows: "In the long term, it is very likely that the precipitation variance related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation will increase". The scientific consensus is also that "it is very likely that rainfall variability related to changes in the strength and spatial extent of ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant changes at regional scale".
2021
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report summarized the state of the art of research in 2021 into the future of ENSO as follows:
October 2022
In seasonally dry tropical forests, which are more drought tolerant, researchers found that El Niño induced drought increased seedling mortality. In a research published in October 2022, researchers studied seasonally dry tropical forests in a national park in Chiang Mai in Thailand for 7 years and observed that El Niño increased seedling mortality even in seasonally dry tropical forests and may impact entire forests in long run.
2023
Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Australia are present across most of Australia, particularly the north and the east, and are one of the main climate drivers of the country. Associated with seasonal abnormality in many areas in the world, Australia is one of the continents most affected and experiences extensive droughts alongside considerable wet periods that cause major floods. There exist three phases — El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral, which help to account for the different states of ENSO. Since 1900, there have been 28 El Niño and 19 La Niña events in Australia including the current 2023 El Niño event, which was declared on 17th of September in 2023. The events usually last for 9 to 12 months, but some can persist for two years, though the ENSO cycle generally operates over a time period from one to eight years.
2024
In a paleoclimate study published in 2024, the authors suggest that El Niños had a strong influence on Earth's hothouse climate during the Permian-Triassic extinction event. The increasing intensity and duration of El Niño events were associated with active volcanism, which resulted in the dieback of vegetation, an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a significant warming and disturbances in the circulation of air masses.
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