History of Kalshi in Timeline

Kalshi is a financial exchange and prediction market based in New York City that launched in July 2021. It allows retail and institutional traders to trade on the outcome of future events using event contracts. The platform focuses on yes-or-no questions across a range of categories including economics, weather, awards, politics, legislation, elections, and sports. Traders purchase contracts that are priced based on the market's perceived probability of the event occurring, with correct predictions paying out $1 per contract.

2018: Kalshi Founded

In 2018, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara founded Kalshi after identifying the need for a platform that allows investors to hedge against uncertainties. Their experience as financial analysts during events like the Brexit referendum highlighted the absence of direct safeguards against unfavorable outcomes, inspiring them to create a platform for wagering on future events.

November 3, 2020: CFTC Federal License Obtained

On November 3, 2020, after an 18-month application process, Kalshi obtained a federal license from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), officially registering as a designated contract market.

July 2021: Kalshi Platform Launch

In July 2021, Kalshi launched its financial exchange and prediction market platform, allowing retail and institutional traders to trade on future events like economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, and political outcomes. The platform allowed users to trade on yes-or-no questions.

August 2022: CFTC Commissioner Dissents Review of Kalshi's Political Event Contracts

In August 2022, CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham dissented on the decision to review Kalshi's political event contracts, arguing that the agency had not established a clear test for what goes against the public interest, eliminating the need for a public interest test.

October 2022: CFTC Staff Recommendation Against Kalshi's Proposal

In October 2022, the commission staff recommended against Kalshi's proposal to introduce higher-stakes futures contracts related to the control of Congress resulting from the midterm elections, and the CFTC delayed a decision on Kalshi's application.

April 2023: Bet Limit on Kalshi Platform

As of April 2023, the bet limit allowed on the Kalshi platform is $25,000, although certain contracts allow a maximum wager of $7 million. Traders are prohibited from wagering more than the amount they have deposited.

June 2023: Kalshi Proposes New Wagering Plan

In June 2023, Kalshi proposed a new plan allowing hedge funds and other major Wall Street firms to wager up to $100 million on which US political party would control Congress. The CTFC opted to request a second round of public comment on Kalshi's plans.

August 2023: Senators Urge CFTC to Reject Kalshi's Proposal

In August 2023, senators Jeff Merkley, Sheldon Whitehouse, Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren, Chris Van Hollen and Dianne Feinstein urged the CFTC to reject Kalshi's proposal, raising concerns over electoral integrity.

September 2023: CFTC Rejects Kalshi's Proposal and Kalshi Files Lawsuit

In September 2023, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer derivatives contracts on congressional control, citing concerns that the planned contracts would violate derivatives market regulations. In November, Kalshi filed a lawsuit against the CFTC over the denial.

2023: Legal Dispute Between Kalshi and the CFTC Begins

In 2023, a legal dispute began between Kalshi and the CFTC over political event contracts. Kalshi maintains its contracts serve the public interest, while the CFTC argues they constitute illegal gambling.

April 2024: Susquehanna International Group Joins Kalshi as Market Maker

In April 2024, Susquehanna International Group became Kalshi’s first dedicated institutional market maker, in an effort to provide consistent liquidity.

September 12, 2024: Court Ruling Favors Kalshi's Congressional Control Contracts

On September 12, 2024, DC District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled in favor of Kalshi, rejecting the CFTC's attempt to delay the company's congressional control contracts. The CFTC quickly appealed the judge's decision. Kalshi launched its election wagers just hours before the appellate ruling.

October 2, 2024: Federal Appeals Court Ruling for Kalshi

On October 2, 2024, a federal appeals court in Washington D.C. allowed Kalshi to revive the first fully regulated election markets in the U.S. by lifting a temporary freeze on trading. This enabled Kalshi to offer trades on which party would control Congress, with plans to expand into other political contests, including the presidential election.

October 3, 2024: Kalshi Introduces Presidential Election Contracts

On October 3, 2024, Kalshi introduced a contract on the presidential election winner, providing a hedging mechanism for potential losses. The platform listed over two dozen new options related to political outcomes after the favorable ruling.

October 2024: Criticism of Kalshi's Election Contracts

In October 2024, following the ruling allowing Kalshi to list contracts on election outcomes, Stephen Hall of Better Markets labeled the ruling "a sad and ominous day for election integrity" in the U.S.

January 2025: Donald Trump Jr. Joins Kalshi

In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. was appointed as a strategic advisor at Kalshi.

March 2025: Robinhood Launches Prediction Markets Hub Powered by Kalshi

In March 2025, Robinhood launched a prediction markets hub powered by Kalshi, offering contracts on sports and policy outcomes.

June 2025: Kalshi Valued at $2 Billion

In June 2025, Kalshi was valued at $2 billion.

July 2025: Kalshi Launches Prediction Markets for Tech IPOs

In July 2025, Kalshi launched prediction markets for trading on the probability of tech companies going public via IPOs by year-end. These markets focus on companies like Databricks, OpenAI, Klarna, Stripe, Brex, and xAI.