History of Sahm rule in Timeline
The Sahm Rule, named after economist Claudia Sahm, is a macroeconomic indicator used by the US Federal Reserve to identify recessions. This heuristic tool, relying on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, assists in real-time business cycle analysis.
1950: Start of Recession Tracking
Since 1950, there have been 11 recessions recorded in the U.S. economy.
1959: First False Positive
In 1959, the Sahm rule generated its first false positive signal, indicating a recession a few months before it actually began. However, a recession did follow six months later.
1969: Second False Positive
The Sahm rule encountered its second false positive signal in 1969, again warning of a recession shortly before it started.
June 2003: False Positive Addressed
Dwaine Van Vuuren proposed modifications to the Sahm rule calculation to eliminate the false positive signal observed in June 2003, aiming to achieve 100% accuracy in recession prediction.
October 2019: Sahm Rule Published
The Sahm rule, a recession indicator, was published by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system in October 2019. It is designed to identify the early stages of a recession.
July 2024: Sahm Rule Acknowledged
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the Sahm rule, referring to it as a "statistical regularity" during a press conference in July 2024.
Mentioned in this timeline
Jerome Powell is an American central banker currently serving as...
Trending
29 minutes ago CM Punk and Roman Reigns Appear on WWE Raw; Usos Defend Titles.
30 minutes ago AJ Lee WWE return speculation, Becky Lynch attack, Reigns & Punk reunion preview
30 minutes ago Cam Thomas returns to Bucks' rotation, future uncertain after being waived.
30 minutes ago Rob Dillingham's recent performance potentially saves Bulls' trade deadline, feeling renewed with the team.
1 hour ago Jalen Duren's Dominance Emerges as Pistons Adapt to Cunningham's Absence in NBA
1 hour ago Daniss Jenkins: Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire Pickups, Impactful Additions Fueling Playoff Contention
Popular
Cesar Chavez was a prominent American labor leader and civil...
Sir David Attenborough is a highly influential British broadcaster biologist...
Kelsey Grammer is a celebrated American actor best known for...
Joseph Clay Kent is an American politician and former military...
Paula White-Cain is a prominent American televangelist and key figure...
Benjamin Bibi Netanyahu is an Israeli politician and diplomat currently...