From career breakthroughs to professional milestones, explore how Allan Lichtman made an impact.
Allan Lichtman is an American historian and professor at American University since 1973. He is most famous for developing the "Keys to the White House" model in 1981, a forecasting system designed to predict the outcomes of presidential elections. Created in collaboration with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the model uses a set of historical factors to assess the strength of the party holding the presidency and predict whether that party will retain the office.
1973: Began teaching at American University
In 1973, Allan Lichtman began teaching at American University.
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1980: Developed Keys system
Around 1980, Allan Lichtman developed his system using 13 historical factors to predict U.S. presidential elections, using data from 1860 through 1980.
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1980: Became full professor
In 1980, Allan Lichtman became a full professor at American University.
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1984: Presidential election predictions
Since 1984, Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of the eleven presidential elections.
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2006: Candidacy for U.S. Senate
In 2006, Allan Lichtman announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Maryland. He and his wife were arrested after a confrontation with a security guard, but were later acquitted.
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2011: Named Distinguished Professor of History
In 2011, Allan Lichtman was named Distinguished Professor of History at American University.
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2013: National Jewish Book Award
In 2013, Allan Lichtman and Richard Breitman received the National Jewish Book Award for their book "FDR and the Jews".
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2017: Authored 'The Case for Impeachment'
In 2017, Allan Lichtman authored the book "The Case for Impeachment", which laid out arguments for the first impeachment of Donald Trump.
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2020: Published 'Repeal the Second Amendment'
In 2020, Allan Lichtman published "Repeal the Second Amendment", arguing for the repeal of the Second Amendment to address gun violence.
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2023: Lichtman Live
As of 2023, Allan Lichtman hosts weekly live streams, called Lichtman Live, on his YouTube channel.
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September 5, 2024: Predicted Harris Win
On September 5, 2024, Allan Lichtman predicted that Kamala Harris would win the presidential election.
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November 5, 2024: Trump Wins 2024 Election
On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, contrary to Allan Lichtman's prediction.
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2024: Video with The New York Times
In 2024, Allan Lichtman produced a video with The New York Times reenacting running at a masters athletics meet while explaining his U.S. presidential prediction methodology.
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