An empire is a political entity comprising various territories, military installations, and diverse populations, often formed through conquest. It's structured with a dominant center exerting political control over subordinate peripheries. Within an empire, different groups possess varying rights and are governed distinctly. While an empire is often headed by an emperor or empress, not all states with combined territories are considered empires. Conversely, not all self-proclaimed empires have been acknowledged as such by their contemporaries or historians.
1900: Observations on Imperial Growth
Around 1900, observers like Frederick Turner and Halford Mackinder described the trend of imperial growth and its implications, with Turner predicting American overseas expansion and Mackinder foreseeing the possibility of a world empire.
1900: Shift in Imperialist Wars
Edward Carr noted a shift in imperialist wars since 1900. Previously waged against "primitive" peoples, maintaining social cohesion through expansion, wars now occurred between imperial powers due to the lack of further expansion opportunities.
1907: The Hague Conference
The Hague Conference of 1907 was held to discuss international peace and disarmament, but according to Spengler, it served as a prelude to World War I.
1912: Collapse of the Qing Dynasty
The Qing Dynasty, the last imperial dynasty of China, collapsed in 1912 due to the Xinhai Revolution, leading to the establishment of the Republic of China.
1914: End of Britain's Imperial Century
In 1914, Britain's Imperial Century, a period of significant global influence and expansion, came to an end with the outbreak of World War I.
1918: End of Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires; Rise of Austrian Empire
1918 marked the end of both the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires, largely due to the aftermath of World War I. It also saw the emergence of the Austrian Empire.
1918: Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire
In 1918, the Ottoman Empire, one of the most powerful empires in the world, was dissolved after World War I.
1918: Dissolution of the German Empire
The German Empire, formed in 1871, was dissolved in 1918 following its defeat in World War I.
1918: Reduction of Ottoman Empire
The Ottoman Empire's imperial dominions were significantly reduced to a core territory in 1918, eventually leading to the empire's dissolution.
1921: The Washington Conference
The Washington Conference of 1921 aimed to address naval disarmament and East Asian security, but Spengler believed it would lead to further wars.
1922: Spengler's Predictions
In 1922, Oswald Spengler published "The Decline of the West," in which he compared the emergence of past empires and predicted the rise of a new world empire within two generations.
1922: Spengler's Prediction of an Imperial Age
Oswald Spengler, in his 1922 book "The Decline of the West," predicted the rise of a global "Imperial Age" ruled by a single power, with "Caesarism" triumphing over democracy within a century.
1922: Formation of the USSR
The USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) was formed in 1922, encompassing the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) and other territories, sometimes seen as the core of a Soviet Empire.
1923: Further Reduction of Ottoman Empire
The remaining territories of the Ottoman Empire were further reduced in 1923.
1939: Start of World War II
World War II began in 1939, a global conflict that significantly impacted the landscape of empires and colonies.
1943: America's Air Role and the Prevention of Annihilation
In 1943, Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi predicted America's post-war air superiority as the only way to prevent the annihilation of cities and countries, offering it as the sole alternative to intercontinental wars.
1944: The Struggle for a World Empire
James Burnham's 1944 study, "The Struggle for the World," predicted a universal empire as the outcome if either superpower won the war. He believed atomic weapons made a world empire inevitable and imminent, arguing that only such an empire could monopolize these weapons and ensure civilization's survival. He posited that the Third World War, already in its early stages, would decide this issue, and though both antagonists might be destroyed, one must ultimately prevail.
July 1945: Start of US Occupation in Berlin
The US occupation of Berlin began in July 1945.
August 6, 1945: Hiroshima Bombing
The first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, an event that Reves argued did not change the inevitability of world empire.
1945: Post-War Pax Americana and Empire by Invitation
Between 1945 and 1952, the United States established a "Pax Americana," with formal commitments to Europe, becoming "empire by invitation." Europeans desired a stronger, more imperial system, while the US exhibited "patience, prudence, and tact." This period ended the same year Toynbee theorized about a future architect of a "Pax Ecumenica."
1945: Publication of "Anatomy of Peace"
Emery Reves published "Anatomy of Peace" in 1945, advocating for world federalism and warning of the inevitability of empire building.
1945: The Inevitability of a Sole Empire
In 1945, Georgy Fedotov, a Russian colleague of Russell and Niebuhr, wrote that all empires are merely stepping stones toward a single, all-encompassing empire. He questioned who would build this empire and on what foundations, proposing that universal unity, achievable through conquest by the strongest power, is the only alternative to annihilation. He considered a "Pax Atlantica" the best possible outcome.
1945: Overseas Expansion and the System of States
In 1945, Ludwig Dehio linked the durability of the European state system to its overseas expansion. He and other authors like Reves and Edward Carr argued that the end of this expansion would lead to direct conflict between the remaining powers.
1945: Global Unification Due to Circumscription
In 1945, Ludwig Dehio predicted global unification because of the global system's circumscription, meaning its inability to expand further or be subject to external intrusion like the European states system.
1945: End of World War II and Start of Decolonization
In 1945, World War II ended, marking the beginning of a period of decolonization, with empires dismantling and granting independence to colonies.
1950: Reves Nominated for Nobel Peace Prize
Emery Reves was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1950 for his work advocating for world federalism.
1951: World Empire as the "Best" Outcome
In 1951, Hans Morgenthau suggested that a world empire would be the "best" outcome of World War III.
1951: Eisenhower's Pessimistic Forecast on America's Role in Europe
In 1951, before his presidency, Eisenhower expressed pessimism about America's long-term role in Europe, likening it to a "modern Rome" guarding frontiers that weren't politically its own. He advocated assisting Western European peoples rather than maintaining a prolonged military presence.
1951: Knock-Out Blow Doctrine and NSC 68
In 1951, the year Toynbee's A Study of History volume was published, US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles introduced the "knock-out blow" doctrine. NSC 68, approved by President Truman in the same year, frequently used the terms "blow" and "Sunday punch," reflecting the strategic thinking of the time.
1952: Toynbee's Pax Ecumenica and the End of "Empire by Invitation"
In 1952, the period of "empire by invitation" for the United States concluded, coinciding with Toynbee's theorization about a future "architect of a Pax Ecumenica."
1959: Eisenhower's Assurance to Khrushchev
In 1959, Eisenhower assured Khrushchev that the US did not intend to occupy Berlin for 50 years.
1979: Central African Empire Becomes a Republic
In 1979, the Central African Empire transitioned from an autocratic empire to a republic.
1988: Strange's Analysis of the American Empire
In 1988, Susan Strange discussed the future of the American Empire, arguing that successful integration of core and periphery was key to imperial longevity, contrasting with predictions of "imperial overstretch."
1989: Beginning of USSR disintegration
The disintegration of the USSR began in 1989, culminating in its full dissolution in 1991.
1991: Dissolution of the USSR
The USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) was dissolved in 1991, leading to the independence of its constituent republics.
1993: Formation of the European Union
The European Union was formally established in 1993, marking a significant step towards European integration.
September 1994: End of US Occupation in Berlin
The US occupation of Berlin ended in September 1994, lasting nearly 50 years.
2000: Publication of "Empire"
In 2000, Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri published their book "Empire," which analyzed the changing dynamics of global power and the emergence of a new form of global sovereignty.
2002: Unprecedented Global Reach
In 2002, Paul Kennedy acknowledged the unprecedented global reach of the present world system. Hubert Vedrine also highlighted the unique nature of this empire, questioning what previous empire had ever subjugated the entire world.
2003: United States Invasion of Iraq
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003, a move that sparked international debate and was considered by some to be imperialistic.
2007: Research on Pre-Modern Civilizations and the Balance of Power
In 2007, a group of political scientists published research on pre-modern civilizations and the balance of power, concluding that such balance is inherently unstable and often leads to imperial order.
2013: Expanding Imperial Cycles and the Rise of Global Empire
In 2013, Marchetti and Ausubel, along with other scholars like Hart, Naroll, Morano, Taagepera, and Carneiro, researched expanding imperial cycles, arguing they represent a historical trend toward world empire. Some predicted this outcome to be "close at hand," within a couple of generations.
June 2022: Putin's Comparison to Peter the Great
In June 2022, Vladimir Putin compared himself to Peter the Great, drawing parallels between their perceived historical missions and further fueling the debate about Russia's imperial ambitions.
2022: End of Spengler's Century
2022 marked the end of the century predicted by Spengler, without the complete realization of his vision of global "Caesarism."