History of Polymarket in Timeline

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform launched in 2020 and headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. It allows users to bet on the likelihood of future events across various categories, including sports, economics, politics, and more. Users deposit USDC cryptocurrency via the Polygon network to trade shares representing the probability of specific outcomes.

2020: Polymarket Launch

In 2020, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, was launched, offering a platform for individuals to place bets on future outcomes via USDC cryptocurrency and Polygon blockchain.

January 2022: CFTC Fine and Cease and Desist Order

In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and received a cease and desist order due to regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility.

May 2022: J. Christopher Giancarlo Appointed Chairman

In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.

2022: Blocked Access to US Customers

In 2022, Polymarket blocked access to United States customers following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

June 2023: Increased Interest After Titan Submersible Tweet

In June 2023, interest in Polymarket increased after a viral tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible. Polymarket had over 60 markets, including the Guatemalan presidential election, Twitter suing Meta, and Russia using nuclear force.

May 2024: $70 Million Raised in Funding Rounds

In May 2024, Polymarket announced raising $70 million across two funding rounds, including investments from Vitalik Buterin (co-founder of Ethereum) and Founders Fund.

June 27, 2024: Polymarket Prediction on Biden's Withdrawal

A few days after the U.S. presidential debate on June 27, 2024, Polymarket predicted a 70% chance that Joe Biden would withdraw from the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

September 2024: Election Prediction Operations Moved Offshore

As of September 2024, Polymarket operates its election prediction operations offshore to avoid regulation in the US by the CFTC.

October 7, 2024: Spike in Odds for Trump Winning 2024 Election

On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election to 53.3%, while other models and competitors showed Kamala Harris with better odds.

October 2024: Investigation of Potential Market Manipulation

In October 2024, Polymarket investigated potential market manipulation related to the Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign, finding a French trader behind large wagers but no evidence of manipulation. The trader ultimately won $85 million.

November 5, 2024: U.S. Elections Become Most Active Market

On November 5, 2024, U.S. elections became the most active market on Polymarket, with over $3.3 billion wagered on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor.

November 13, 2024: FBI Raids Coplan's Home

On November 13, 2024, the FBI raided Polymarket founder Coplan's home, seizing his phone as part of a Department of Justice investigation into allegedly allowing U.S.-based users to make bets on the website.

November 26, 2024: Swiss Gambling Authority Adds Polymarket to Blocked Domains List

On November 26, 2024, the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority added Polymarket.com to its blocked domains list due to violations of gambling and sports betting regulations.

January 12, 2025: Singapore Adds Polymarket to Internet Gambling Blacklist

On January 12, 2025, Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority added Polymarket.com to its internet gambling blacklist due to the site being in violation of those countries' gambling laws.

February 3, 2025: Belgium Bans Polymarket

On February 3, 2025, the Belgian Gaming Commission banned the platform in Belgium and issued a warning to users about its illegality.

July 15, 2025: DOJ and CFTC investigations formally ended; Polymarket acquired QCEX for $112 million

On July 15, 2025, CNBC reported that the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally ended their investigations into Polymarket without bringing new charges. Following this, Polymarket announced the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million.

July 2025: End of Probe and New Advisory Role

In July 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Department of Justice ended a probe into Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr. has taken on an advisory role at Polymarket.

October 2025: $2 Billion Investment from ICE

In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at $9 billion.

November 14, 2025: Controversy over Russo-Ukrainian War Bets

On November 14, 2025, a Polymarket bet on the capture of Myrnohrad by Russia was won based on inaccurate information from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), leading to accusations of fraud and data misuse.

November 2025: Listing of Nuclear Detonation Bet

In November 2025, the bet on nuclear detonations was first listed on Polymarket.

December 2, 2025: Eased Regulatory Environment and New Advisor

On December 2, 2025, the regulatory environment for Polymarket was eased by the second Donald Trump administration, and Donald Trump Jr. joined as an advisor, with his firm 1789 Capital also investing in the company.

2025: Israeli Air Force Members Bet on Strikes

In 2025, members of the Israeli Air Force bet on the timing of strikes during the Twelve Day War.

January 2026: Scrutiny Over Potential Insider Trading

In January 2026, a new Polymarket account profited significantly from bets on Nicolás Maduro being ousted and U.S. military action against Venezuela before January 31, raising concerns about potential insider trading before the 2026 United States intervention in Venezuela was publicly announced.

January 2026: Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint against Polymarket

In January 2026, the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint against Polymarket seeking to prevent the platform from offering event contracts to Nevada residents without a state-issued gaming license. This action followed a preliminary injunction issued in the Massachusetts Superior Court case Commonwealth v. KalshiEX LLC, which found that similar prediction market contracts functioned as illegal sports wagering under state law.

February 2026: Company Valued at $9 Billion

By February 2026, Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.

March 2026: Acquisition of Brahma

In March 2026, Polymarket acquired Brahma, a crypto and DeFi infrastructure startup, to simplify its blockchain infrastructure for users.

March 2026: Harassment of Journalist and Ethical Concerns

In March 2026, Polymarket faced allegations that users harassed journalist Emanuel Fabian over bets related to an Iranian missile strike, leading to condemnation and renewed scrutiny over ethical risks. Polymarket banned those involved.

March 2026: Scrutiny and Removal of Nuclear Detonation Bet

In March 2026, Polymarket faced scrutiny after users placed nearly $850,000 in bets on nuclear detonations following the beginning of the 2026 Iran war. The bet was removed shortly after.

March 2026: Indictments of Israeli Air Force Members

In March 2026, multiple members of the Israeli Air Force were interrogated or indicted for placing Polymarket bets on the timing of Israeli and American strikes on Iran during the Twelve Day War, with one officer allegedly earning $244,000.

March 17, 2026: Portugal Bans Polymarket

On March 17, 2026, the Portuguese Gaming Policy and Regulation Service (SRIJ) issued a nationwide ban on Polymarket, ordering local ISPs to block access due to a lack of proper licensing.

2026: Ethical Concerns Highlighted

In 2026, Polymarket betting has been described as a "legal and ethical grey area" due to the ability of individuals with insider information to bet on outcomes.