History of Polymarket in Timeline

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform launched in 2020. Users deposit USDC via the Polygon network and trade shares representing the probability of future events, which include economic indicators, weather, awards, and political outcomes. Based in Manhattan, New York City, the platform allows individuals to bet on the likelihood of these events occurring.

2020: Polymarket Founded

In 2020, Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan. It's a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events.

January 2022: CFTC Fine and Cease and Desist Order

In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and received a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility.

May 2022: Appointment of J. Christopher Giancarlo

In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.

2022: Blocking of U.S. Customers

In 2022, Polymarket blocked access to U.S. customers following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over operating an unregistered derivatives-trading platform.

2022: Previous CFTC Settlement

In 2022, Polymarket made a settlement with the CFTC.

June 2023: Increased Interest After Titan Submersible Tweet

In June 2023, Mother Jones reported increased interest in Polymarket after a viral tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible bet, which focused on whether the submersible would be found by a certain date.

May 2024: Successful Funding Rounds

In May 2024, Polymarket announced that it had raised $70 million across two funding rounds, including investments from Vitalik Buterin and Founders Fund.

June 27, 2024: Prediction of Joe Biden's Potential Withdrawal

A few days after the 2024 U.S. presidential debate held on June 27, 2024, Polymarket predicted a 70% chance that Democratic candidate Joe Biden would withdraw from the 2024 U.S. presidential election (an increase from 20%).

September 2024: Offshore Election Prediction Operations

As of September 2024, Polymarket operates its election prediction operations offshore to avoid CFTC regulation.

October 7, 2024: Spike in Odds for Donald Trump Winning the 2024 Election

On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, reaching 53.3%, while Kamala Harris's odds declined to 46.1%.

October 2024: Investigation of Potential Market Manipulation

In October 2024, Polymarket investigated potential market manipulation related to an influence campaign favoring Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign.

November 5, 2024: U.S. Elections Market Activity

As of November 5, 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on Polymarket, with over $3.3 billion wagered on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

November 13, 2024: FBI Raid on Coplan's Home

On November 13, 2024, the FBI raided Shayne Coplan's home and seized his phone as part of a Department of Justice investigation into Polymarket for allegedly allowing U.S.-based gamblers to make bets on the website.

November 26, 2024: Blocklisting by Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority

On November 26, 2024, the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority blocklisted Polymarket.com due to concerns about prediction markets violating gambling and sports betting regulations.

November 29, 2024: Geo-blocking Agreement with French National Gaming Authority

On November 29, 2024, the French National Gaming Authority, after investigating Polymarket for potential violations of French laws, announced that the company had agreed to perform a geo-block for France.

2024: Previous Enforcement Actions

In 2024, there were previous enforcement actions from CFTC.

January 8, 2025: Domain Blocked in Poland

On January 8, 2025, Poland's Ministry of Finance blocked access to Polymarket.com as a domain offering gambling in contravention of Polish laws.

January 12, 2025: Website Blocked in Singapore

On January 12, 2025, Singapore’s Gambling Regulatory Authority blocked access to Polymarket’s website, deeming it to be providing unlawful gambling.

February 3, 2025: Platform Banned in Belgium

On February 3, 2025, the Belgian gambling commission, Commission des Jeux de Hasard, banned the Polymarket platform in Belgium, warning users that its use was illegal.

July 15, 2025: US DOJ and CFTC End Investigations

On July 15, 2025, CNBC reported that the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally ended their investigations into Polymarket without bringing new charges.

July 2025: End of Regulatory Probe

In July 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Department of Justice ended a probe into Polymarket after the second Donald Trump administration eased regulatory pressure.