History of Polymarket in Timeline

Polymarket, headquartered in Manhattan's Upper East Side, is the world's largest prediction market. Launched in 2020, this decentralized platform facilitates event contract trading for both retail and institutional investors. Users deposit USDC via the Polygon blockchain to speculate on diverse future events, from economic indicators and weather to awards, political outcomes, and legislative decisions. By trading shares, participants essentially wager on the probability of specific outcomes.

2020: Polymarket Founded

Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan with the goal of creating a platform for users to trade on the outcome of real-world events.

January 2022: CFTC Fine and Cease and Desist

In January 2022, Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC and issued a cease and desist order for failing to register as a Swap Execution Facility. Polymarket cooperated with the investigation.

May 2022: Giancarlo Appointed Chairman

J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former CFTC Commissioner, joined Polymarket as chairman of its advisory board in May 2022.

June 2023: Increased Interest and Diverse Markets

In June 2023, Polymarket saw a surge in interest following a viral tweet about a bet on the Titan submersible. At the time, the platform hosted over 60 markets, including bets on elections and international relations.

June 27, 2024: Polymarket Predicts Biden Withdrawal

A few days after the 2024 U.S. presidential debate on June 27, 2024, Polymarket predicted a 70% chance that Joe Biden would withdraw from the election.

October 7, 2024: Trump Odds Spike on Polymarket

On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a significant increase in the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, diverging from other prediction markets and analysis models. Theories for this included large wagers on Trump, potentially influenced by Elon Musk's recent appearances and social media activity.

October 2024: Investigation into Potential Market Manipulation

In October 2024, Polymarket's divergence in predicting Trump's odds continued, prompting an investigation into potential market manipulation. It was later revealed that a single French trader controlled four accounts with large Trump wagers, but no evidence of manipulation was found.