History of Polymarket in Timeline

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market launched in 2020, based in Manhattan, New York. It allows users to bet on the likelihood of various future events, such as sports outcomes, economic data, weather, awards, and political and legislative events. Users deposit USDC via the Polygon network to trade shares representing the probability of these outcomes.

2020: Polymarket Launch

In 2020, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, was launched. The platform allows individuals to place bets on future outcomes using USDC cryptocurrency via the Polygon blockchain network.

January 2022: CFTC Fines Polymarket

In January 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket US$1.4 million and issued a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility. However, Polymarket received a lower fine due to "substantial cooperation" during the investigation.

May 2022: Giancarlo Appointed Advisory Board Chairman

In May 2022, J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, was appointed as chairman of Polymarket's advisory board.

2022: Polymarket Blocks US Access

In 2022, Polymarket blocked access to United States customers following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform.

2022: CFTC Settlement

In 2022, Polymarket settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), agreeing to wind down U.S. operations after being accused of running an illegal exchange.

June 2023: Increased Interest After Titan Submersible Tweet

In June 2023, Mother Jones reported increased interest in Polymarket after a tweet about the Titan submersible outcome went viral. At that time, Polymarket had over 60 markets available, including the Guatemalan presidential election outcome, the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood of Russia using nuclear force.

May 2024: Polymarket Raises $70 Million

In May 2024, Polymarket announced it had raised $70 million across two funding rounds, including investments from Vitalik Buterin (co-founder of Ethereum) and Founders Fund.

June 27, 2024: Polymarket Predicted Biden Withdrawal

A few days after the 2024 U.S. presidential debate held on June 27, 2024, Polymarket predicted a 70% chance that Joe Biden would withdraw from the 2024 U.S. presidential election race, weeks before he officially announced his withdrawal.

September 2024: Offshore Election Prediction Operations

As of September 2024, Polymarket operates its election prediction operations offshore to avoid regulation by the CFTC in the US.

October 7, 2024: Trump's Odds Spike on Polymarket

On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds Donald Trump would win the 2024 election to 53.3%, while Kamala Harris's odds declined to 46.1%. This diverged from competitors and models, leading to theories involving large wagers and potential influences. Nate Silver, a Polymarket advisor, called the shift "larger than is justified."

October 2024: Polymarket Investigates Potential Market Manipulation

In October 2024, Polymarket investigated potential market manipulation related to the 2024 Donald Trump presidential campaign due to suspicious betting patterns. The company confirmed that four accounts were controlled by one French trader and found no evidence of manipulation. The trader won $85 million upon Trump's victory.

November 5, 2024: US Elections Become Most Active Market

As of November 5, 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the Polymarket platform, with over $3.3 billion wagered on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024.

November 13, 2024: FBI Raids Coplan's Home

On November 13, 2024, the FBI raided Coplan's home and seized his phone as part of a Department of Justice investigation into Polymarket for allegedly allowing U.S.-based users to make bets on the website.

November 26, 2024: Polymarket Blocklisted by Swiss Gambling Authority

On November 26, 2024, the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority blocklisted Polymarket.com due to the controversial aspects of prediction markets violating regulations on gambling and sports betting.

2024: Enforcement Actions

Enforcement actions occurred in 2024.

January 12, 2025: Singapore Blacklists Polymarket

On January 12, 2025, Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority added Polymarket.com to its internet gambling blacklist because the site was in violation of the country's gambling laws.

February 3, 2025: Belgium Bans Polymarket

On February 3, 2025, the Belgian Gaming Commission banned Polymarket in Belgium, warning users that using the platform in Belgium is illegal.

July 15, 2025: Investigations Ended and Acquisition of QCEX

On July 15, 2025, CNBC reported that the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally ended their investigations into Polymarket without bringing new charges. Polymarket also announced the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million.

July 2025: CFTC and DOJ End Probe into Polymarket

In July 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Department of Justice ended their probe into Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr. also took on an advisory role at Polymarket.

October 2025: ICE Investment in Polymarket

In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing the company's valuation to $9 billion.

October 2025: Investment from Intercontinental Exchange

In October 2025, Polymarket secured up to a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which valued the company at $8 billion.

November 14, 2025: Polymarket Bet on Myrnohrad Capture

On November 14, 2025, a Polymarket bet that Myrnohrad would be captured by Russia by November 15 was won based on information from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which was later determined to be inaccurate. Polymarket accused ISW of fraud, while Ukrainian DeepState accused Polymarket of improperly using its data to fuel bets.

November 2025: Amended Order of Designation from CFTC

In November 2025, Polymarket received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC and began actively expanding in the United States market.

December 2, 2025: Polymarket regulatory environment is eased

On December 2, 2025, The second Donald Trump administration eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket. At the same time, Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor, whose firm 1789 Capital also invested in the company.

January 2026: Insider Trading Allegations

In January 2026, a newly created Polymarket account netted over $400,000 from positions held on Nicolás Maduro being ousted from office and U.S. military action against Venezuela before January 31. These bets were under scrutiny on social media for potential insider trading before the 2026 United States strikes in Venezuela was publicly announced.

January 2026: Nevada Gaming Control Board Files Civil Complaint

In January 2026, the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint against Polymarket seeking to prevent the platform from offering event contracts to Nevada residents without a state-issued gaming license.