History of Polymarket in Timeline

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform launched in 2020 and headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. It allows users to bet on the likelihood of various future events, ranging from sports and economics to politics and military conflicts, using USDC cryptocurrency via the Polygon network. Users trade shares representing the probability of specific outcomes, effectively turning predictions into tradable assets.

2020: Platform Launch

In 2020, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, launched its platform headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. The platform allows individuals to place bets on future outcomes using USDC cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network.

2020: Polymarket Founded

In 2020, Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket, a prediction market that allows users to gain or lose on the outcome of world events.

January 2022: CFTC Fine and Cease-and-Desist Order

In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and received a cease-and-desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility. The CFTC noted Polymarket's "substantial cooperation," which resulted in a reduced fine.

May 2022: Appointment of J. Christopher Giancarlo

In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.

2022: Blocked Access to U.S. Customers

In 2022, Polymarket blocked access to United States customers following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of operating an unregistered derivatives-trading platform.

June 2023: Increased Interest After Titan Submersible Tweet

In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest in Polymarket increased after a viral tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible incident. At the time, Polymarket had over 60 markets available, including the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta.

May 2024: $70 Million Raised in Funding Rounds

In May 2024, Polymarket announced that it had raised $70 million across two funding rounds, including investments from Vitalik Buterin (cofounder of Ethereum) and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Thiel.

June 27, 2024: Prediction of Biden's Potential Withdrawal

A few days after the 2024 U.S. presidential debate held on June 27, 2024, Polymarket predicted a 70% chance that Democratic candidate Joe Biden would withdraw from the 2024 U.S. presidential election race, an increase from 20%, weeks before his official announcement. In contrast, on August 5, Polymarket showed 68% odds Kamala Harris would pick Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, with Minnesota governor Tim Walz at 23% odds. Harris selected Walz the next day.

September 2024: Offshore Election Prediction Operations

As of September 2024, Polymarket operates its election prediction operations offshore to avoid regulation by the CFTC in the U.S.

October 7, 2024: Spike in Trump's Odds on Polymarket

On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, reaching 53.3%, while Kamala Harris's odds declined to 46.1%. This divergence from other platforms and models led to discussions about potential factors influencing Polymarket's predictions, including large wagers and endorsements.

October 2024: Investigation of Potential Market Manipulation

In October 2024, Polymarket initiated an investigation of potential market manipulation related to the Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign. The investigation focused on four bettors with about $30 million in Trump wagers, with Polymarket confirming on October 24 that the four accounts were controlled by one French trader, finding no evidence of efforts at market manipulation.

November 5, 2024: U.S. Elections Market Activity

As of November 5, 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on Polymarket, with over $3.3 billion wagered on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Also in 2024, Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor to Polymarket.

November 13, 2024: FBI Raid on Founder's Home

On November 13, 2024, the FBI raided Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan's home and seized his phone as part of a Department of Justice investigation into allegations that Polymarket allowed U.S.-based users to make bets on the website.

November 26, 2024: Swiss Gambling Authority Block

On November 26, 2024, the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority added Polymarket.com to its blocked domains list, citing controversial aspects of prediction markets.

January 12, 2025: Singapore Blacklist

On January 12, 2025, Polymarket.com was added to Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority internet gambling blacklist, due to the site being in violation of gambling laws.

February 3, 2025: Belgium Ban

On February 3, 2025, the Belgian Gaming Commission, Commission des Jeux de Hasard, banned the platform in Belgium, warning users trying to connect that use of the platform in Belgium is illegal.

July 15, 2025: U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC end investigations into Polymarket

On July 15, 2025, CNBC reported that the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally ended their investigations into Polymarket without bringing new charges. Following the end of the investigations, Polymarket announced the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million.

July 2025: End of CFTC and DOJ Probe

In July 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Department of Justice ended a probe into Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr. has taken on an advisory role at Polymarket.

October 2025: $2 Billion Investment from ICE

In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at $9 billion.

November 14, 2025: Controversy Surrounding ISW Map and Polymarket Bet

On November 14, 2025, during the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicated on a map that Russian forces had advanced into downtown Myrnohrad, leading to a closed bet on Polymarket. Ukrainian DeepState accused Polymarket of improperly using its maps and data to fuel bets.

November 2025: Polymarket receives Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC

In November 2025, Polymarket received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC and began actively expanding in the United States market.

November 2025: Betting on Nuclear Detonations Listed

In November 2025, a bet on nuclear detonations following the beginning of the 2026 Iran war was first listed on Polymarket, later attracting nearly $850,000 in bets before being removed.

December 2, 2025: Eased regulatory environment

On December 2, 2025, after a second Donald Trump administration eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket, the platform added Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor, and his firm 1789 Capital also invested in the company.

2025: Insider Trading

In 2025, an air force officer gave information on the 2025 strikes to a colleague and the two allegedly earned $244,000.

January 2026: Suspicious Betting Activity on Venezuelan Political Outcome

In January 2026, a newly created Polymarket account made over $400,000 from bets on Nicolás Maduro's ousting and U.S. military action against Venezuela before January 31. These bets came under scrutiny for potential insider trading, and a U.S. Special Forces soldier was later arrested and charged in connection with the trades.

January 2026: Nevada Gaming Control Board files civil complaint against Polymarket

In January 2026, the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint against Polymarket, seeking to prevent the platform from offering event contracts to Nevada residents without a state-issued gaming license. This action followed a preliminary injunction issued in the Massachusetts Superior Court case Commonwealth v. KalshiEX LLC, which found that similar prediction market contracts functioned as illegal sports wagering under state law.

February 2, 2026: Sofia Regional Court of Bulgaria demands Polymarket block

On February 2, 2026, the Sofia Regional Court of Bulgaria demanded that Internet providers block Polymarket because it lacked a valid gambling license in the country.

February 2026: Valuation Reaches $9 Billion

By February 2026, Polymarket's valuation had increased to $9 billion.

March 2026: Acquisition of Brahma

In March 2026, Polymarket acquired Brahma, a crypto and DeFi infrastructure startup, to simplify its blockchain infrastructure for users.

March 2026: Indictment of Israeli Air Force Members for Insider Trading

In March 2026, multiple members of the Israeli Air Force were interrogated or indicted regarding bets on the timing of Israeli and American strikes on Iran during the Twelve-Day War. An air force officer gave information on the 2025 strikes to a colleague and the two allegedly earned $244,000.

March 2026: Harassment of Journalist and Ethical Concerns

In March 2026, users who had placed large bets related to an Iranian missile strike allegedly harassed and threatened Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian. Polymarket condemned the behavior and banned those involved. This incident drew broader criticism and renewed political scrutiny in the United States.

March 17, 2026: Portuguese Gaming Policy issues ban on Polymarket

On March 17, 2026, the Portuguese Gaming Policy and Regulation Service (SRIJ) issued a nationwide ban on Polymarket. Local Internet service providers were ordered to block access to the platform due to the absence of proper licensing for gambling and sports betting operations.

April 26, 2026: Polymarket banned in Brazil

On April 26, 2026, Polymarket, along with other prediction markets, was banned in Brazil.

2026: Suspiciously Timed Trades Related to the Iran War

During 2026, there have been multiple cases of suspiciously timed trades related to the 2026 Iran war on Polymarket, raising concerns about insider trading.