History of Artificial intelligence arms race in Timeline

The artificial intelligence arms race is a competition, primarily among nations, to develop and deploy advanced AI technologies and lethal autonomous weapons systems. The aim is to secure a strategic advantage, mirroring past arms races. Fueled by rising geopolitical tensions, a race for superior AI and military AI has emerged among major powers since the mid-2010s.

2007: AI professor Noel Sharkey warns of an emerging arms race

As early as 2007, scholars such as AI professor Noel Sharkey warned of "an emerging arms race among the hi-tech nations to develop autonomous submarines, fighter jets, battleships and tanks that can find their own targets and apply violent force without the involvement of meaningful human decisions".

2010: AI procurement landscape shifts

Before 2013, Chinese defense procurement was mainly restricted to a few conglomerates; however, as of 2017, China often sources sensitive emerging technology such as drones and artificial intelligence from private start-up companies, showing a shift in procurement practices.

2010: Worldwide military spending on robotics

In 2010, Siemens reported that worldwide military spending on robotics reached US$5.1 billion, illustrating the substantial financial investment in military robotics at the time.

2010: Super aEgis II machine gun unveiled

In 2010, the South Korean Super aEgis II machine gun, was unveiled and sees use both in South Korea and in the Middle East. It can identify, track, and destroy a moving target at a range of 4 km. While the technology can theoretically operate without human intervention, in practice safeguards are installed to require manual input.

2011: DoD investment in AI, big data, and cloud computing

In 2011, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) invested $5.6 billion in artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing, as reported by data science and analytics firm Govini, indicating the initial stages of significant investment in these technologies.

2013: Changes in Chinese defense procurement

2014: Omohundro warns of autonomous weapons race

In 2014, AI specialist Steve Omohundro warned about the ongoing autonomous weapons arms race, indicating growing concerns regarding the militarization of artificial intelligence.

2014: "Third Offset Strategy" posited by Chuck Hagel

In 2014, former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel introduced the "Third Offset Strategy", highlighting that rapid advances in artificial intelligence will define the next generation of warfare, influencing military strategy and planning.

2015: Open letter calling for the prohibition of lethal autonomous weapons

A 2015 open letter by the Future of Life Institute calling for the prohibition of lethal autonomous weapons systems has been signed by over 26,000 citizens, including physicist Stephen Hawking, Tesla magnate Elon Musk, Apple's Steve Wozniak and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, and over 4,600 artificial intelligence researchers, including Stuart Russell, Bart Selman and Francesca Rossi.

2015: Baidu's speech recognition benchmark

In 2015, Baidu passed a notable Chinese-language speech recognition capability benchmark, showcasing China's homegrown AI accomplishments.

2015: Increased military spending on robotics

In 2015, Siemens reported that worldwide military spending on robotics increased to US$7.5 billion, showing a growth in financial investment in military robotics compared to 2010.

2015: UK opposes ban on lethal autonomous weapons

In 2015, the UK government opposed a ban on lethal autonomous weapons, stating that "international humanitarian law already provides sufficient regulation for this area", but that all weapons employed by UK armed forces would be "under human oversight and control".

2016: China questions international law on autonomous weapons

In 2016, China published a position paper questioning the adequacy of existing international law to address the eventuality of fully autonomous weapons, becoming the first permanent member of the U. N. Security Council to broach the issue.

2016: China leads in AI research papers

In 2016, China published more AI research papers than the entire European Union for the first time, according to the Financial Times. China also overtook the United States in the number of highly cited AI papers, but still lagged behind the European Union in that category.

2016: DoD investment in AI, big data, and cloud computing

In 2016, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) increased its investment in artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing to $7.4 billion, as reported by Govini, showing a notable increase from 2011.

February 2017: Russia working on AI-guided missiles

In February 2017, Russian General Viktor Bondarev, commander-in-chief of the Russian air force, stated that Russia was working on AI-guided missiles capable of switching targets mid-flight.

April 2017: Project Maven establishment

In April 2017, Project Maven, also known as the Algorithmic Warfare Cross Functional Team, was established in a memo by the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense to use machine learning to analyze drone videos, enhancing battlefield command and control.

May 2017: Autonomous AI operation systems existed for UAV clusters

In May 2017, the CEO of Russia's Kronstadt Group stated that "there already exist completely autonomous AI operation systems that provide the means for UAV clusters, when they fulfill missions autonomously, sharing tasks between them, and interact", and that it is inevitable that "swarms of drones" will one day fly over combat zones.

July 2017: Project Maven at Defense One Tech Summit

In July 2017, at the second Defense One Tech Summit, Col. Drew Cukor discussed the investment in a "deliberate workflow process" for Project Maven, funded through the Department of Defense's "rapid acquisition authorities" for about "the next 36 months."

September 2017: Putin: "Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world"

In September 2017, during a National Knowledge Day address, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated, "Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all humankind... Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world".

November 1, 2017: Viktor Bondarev: AI will replace soldiers and pilots

On November 1, 2017, Viktor Bondarev stated that "artificial intelligence will be able to replace a soldier on the battlefield and a pilot in an aircraft cockpit" and noted that "the day is nearing when vehicles will get artificial intelligence."

November 2017: UN diplomats disagree on defining autonomous weapons

At a November 2017 session of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), diplomats could not agree even on how to define such weapons. The Indian ambassador and chair of the CCW stated that agreement on rules remained a distant prospect.

November 2017: Project Maven as AI pathfinder

In November 2017, Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan described Project Maven as a pilot project and pathfinder to kindle artificial intelligence across the rest of the Defense Department, highlighting its role in promoting AI adoption.

2017: Belfer Center predicts AI as transformative as nuclear weapons

A 2017 report from Harvard's Belfer Center predicts that AI has the potential to be as transformative as nuclear weapons. The report further argues that "Preventing expanded military use of AI is likely impossible" and that "the more modest goal of safe and effective technology management must be pursued", such as banning the attaching of an AI dead man's switch to a nuclear arsenal.

2017: Beijing's AI industry roadmap

As of 2017, Beijing's roadmap aims to create a $150 billion AI industry by 2030, setting ambitious goals for AI development and economic growth.

2017: DoD directive on autonomous weapons

From 2017, a temporary US Department of Defense directive requires a human operator to be kept in the loop when it comes to the taking of human life by autonomous weapons systems, setting a preliminary guideline for ethical considerations in AI weapon deployment.

2017: Chinese researchers at AAAI conference

In 2017, 23% of the researchers presenting at the American Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) conference were Chinese, highlighting China's growing presence in AI research.

2017: Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh

In 2017, President Donald Trump visited Riyadh and signed hundreds of billions of dollars in agreements spanning defense, energy, and technology. This visit laid the groundwork for deeper U.S.-Saudi cooperation in areas like AI and tech infrastructure.

2017: Slaughterbots film released

In 2017, the Future of Life Institute released Slaughterbots, a fictional film portraying threats of autonomous weapons and promoting a ban, which went viral.

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2017: NSF budget for AI remains unchanged

In 2017, the civilian NSF budget for AI saw no increase, contrasting with the increased military spending, suggesting a potential disparity in AI funding priorities.

February 2018: Establishment of AI task force

In February 2018, a task force for the Strategic Implementation of AI for National Security and Defence was established by the Ministry of Defense's Department of Defence Production, signaling India's commitment to integrating AI into national security.

March 2018: Russian AI agenda released

In March 2018, the Russian government released a 10-point AI agenda, calling for the establishment of an AI and Big Data consortium, a Fund for Analytical Algorithms and Programs, a state-backed AI training and education program, a dedicated AI lab, and a National Center for Artificial Intelligence, among other initiatives.

June 2018: Google to not follow-up Project Maven after contract expires

In June 2018, company sources at Google said that top executive Diane Greene told staff that the company would not follow-up Project Maven after the current contract expired in March 2019.

June 2018: Creation of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC)

In June 2018, the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC) was created as a subdivision of the United States Armed Forces to explore the usage of AI in actual combat, aiming to transform the US Department of Defense through AI adoption and mission impact.

2018: Xi Jinping calls for international cooperation in AI

In 2018, CCP general secretary Xi Jinping called for greater international cooperation in basic AI research, signaling China's interest in collaborative AI development.

2018: Private Chinese investment in AI

In 2018, the Japan Times reported that annual private Chinese investment in AI is under $7 billion per year, indicating significant private sector involvement in AI development.

2018: United States private investment in AI

In 2018, the Japan Times reported that private investment in AI in the United States was around $70 billion per year, highlighting the substantial private sector involvement in AI development.

February 2019: Report on China's military-civil fusion strategy

In February 2019, a report by Gregory C. Allen of the Center for a New American Security highlighted China's strategic policy of military-civil fusion on AI, underscoring the belief that AI is critical to future global military and economic power competition.

March 2019: Google current contract expired for Project Maven

In March 2019, Google's current contract expired for Project Maven. In June 2018, Diane Greene told staff that the company would not follow-up Project Maven after the current contract expired.

October 31, 2019: DIB report on ethical AI use

On October 31, 2019, the United States Department of Defense's Defense Innovation Board published the draft of a report recommending principles for the ethical use of artificial intelligence by the Department of Defense, ensuring human oversight in the kill-chain process, though implementation remains a concern.

November 2019: AI critical to US military superiority

In November 2019, the 'Interim Report' of the United States' National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence confirmed that AI is critical to US technological military superiority, emphasizing the importance of AI in national defense.

2019: 26 heads of state backed a ban on autonomous weapons

As of 2019, 26 heads of state and 21 Nobel Peace Prize laureates backed a ban on autonomous weapons.

2019: Esper criticizes China on drone sales

In 2019, former United States Secretary of Defense Mark Esper criticized China for selling drones capable of taking life with no human oversight, raising concerns about the ethical implications of AI in warfare.

2019: MoD initiates AI readiness

In 2019, the process of getting the military ready for AI use was started by the MoD. Also, the Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics was approved to develop AI solutions to improve intelligence collection and analysis capabilities.

October 2021: Chinese military AI equipment suppliers

An October 2021 report by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology found that most of the Chinese military's AI equipment suppliers are not state-owned defense enterprises, but private Chinese tech companies founded after 2010.

2021: Slaughterbots - if human: kill() film released

In 2021, the Future of Life Institute released Slaughterbots - if human: kill(), a fictional film portraying threats of autonomous weapons and promoting a ban, which went viral.

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2021: AI and Quantum initiatives by Indian Army

In 2021, the Indian Army, with assistance from the National Security Council, began operating the Quantum Lab and Artificial Intelligence Center at the Military College of Telecommunication Engineering. Also in 2021, the Defence Research and Development Organisation and Indian Institute of Science established the Joint Advanced Technology Programme-Center of Excellence.

2022: Major powers continue to oppose a ban on autonomous weapons

As of 2022, most major powers continue to oppose a ban on autonomous weapons.

2022: Indian Navy AI initiatives

In 2022, the Indian Navy created an AI Core group and set up a Center of Excellence for AI and Big Data analysis at INS Valsura. The Indian Army also incubated the Artificial Intelligence Offensive Drone Operations Project.

2022: Establishment of Defence AI Council and Agency

In 2022, the Indian government established the Defence Artificial Intelligence Council and the Defence AI Project Agency. The government also published a list of 75 defense-related AI priority projects.

2023: Microsoft pitches DALL-E to DoD

In 2023, Microsoft pitched the DoD to use DALL-E models to train its battlefield management system, indicating potential military applications of AI-generated imagery.

2023: Reported AI drone incident

In 2023, a United States Air Force official reportedly stated that during a computer test, a simulated AI drone killed its human operator. The USAF later retracted this statement, clarifying that such simulations were never conducted.

January 2024: OpenAI removes ban on military use

In January 2024, OpenAI, the developer of DALL-E, removed the blanket ban on military and warfare use from its usage policies, potentially opening the door for increased military adoption of its AI technologies.

2024: Ukraine produced 2 million drones

In 2024, Ukraine produced approximately 2 million drones, 96.2% of which were domestically manufactured, with the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) at the forefront of utilizing drones with some elements of autonomy for conducting long-range strikes into Russian territory.

2025: Prediction of China leading in AI

Eric Schmidt, former chairman and CEO of Alphabet, predicted that China will be the leading country in AI by 2025, reflecting expectations of China's dominance in the field.

2025: Iran established National AI action

In 2025, Iran established a National AI action with a 100,000,000,000,000,000 billion Rial ($20bn USD) investment, backed by the National Development Fund of Iran, and incorporated the National Artificial Intelligence Organization.

2025: Donald Trump visits the UAE

In 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump visited the UAE, where he met with Emirati officials and business leaders. The visit included discussions on technology and economic cooperation, including potential collaborations with U.S. companies such as Oracle, NVIDIA, and Cisco.

2025: Announcement of the Stargate Project

In 2025, the Stargate Project was announced as a joint venture between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, U.S. President Donald Trump, Oracle Corporation, MGX, SoftBank Group, and other partners, aiming to develop large-scale AI infrastructure in the United States.

2025: Deregulation campaign to accelerate AI growth

In 2025, under the second Trump administration, the United States began a broad deregulation campaign aimed at accelerating growth in sectors critical to artificial intelligence, including nuclear energy, infrastructure, and high-performance computing.

2026: AI Ready Weapons advertised by Iran

Before the 2026 Iran war, the Iranian army advertised AI-ready weapons. Also in 2026, Iran and Russia signed a new cooperation agreement on artificial intelligence, and the IRGC Navy tested AI-guided missiles.

2026: Leveraging private sector AI workforce

By 2026, the Indian government intends to leverage the private sector's sizable AI workforce and dual-use technologies for defense. In order to conduct research on autonomous platforms, improved surveillance, predictive maintenance, and intelligent decision support system, the Indian Army AI Incubation Center was established.

2026: US AI spending estimation

In 2026, the estimated spending on AI in the USA is over $700 billion, highlighting the substantial investment in artificial intelligence technologies.

2026: Annual funding for AI projects

Until 2026, the MoD earmarked ₹1,000 crore annually for capacity building, infrastructure setup, data preparation, and Al project implementation. The Indian Army, the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force set aside ₹100 crore annually for the development of AI-specific applications.

2029: Projected investment for the Stargate Project

By 2029, the Stargate Project is projected to involve a $500 billion investment, focusing on building advanced data centers, custom AI hardware, and sustainable energy systems, positioning the U.S. as a global leader in AI technology.

2030: Target for AI industry

As of 2017, Beijing's roadmap aims to create a $150 billion AI industry by 2030, setting ambitious goals for AI development and economic growth.

2030: Russia to derive 30% of combat power from AI

By 2030, the Military-Industrial Commission of Russia approved plans to derive 30 percent of Russia's combat power from remote-controlled and AI-enabled robotic platforms.

2030: Saudi Arabia to become a global leader in AI

Saudi-backed startup Humain partnered with several American firms, further strengthening the Kingdom's ties with Silicon Valley as it pushed to become a global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.